Devolved elections: Wales and Scotland
Alongside the English local elections, voters in Wales and Scotland will also go to the polls on Thursday 7 May 2026, electing members to Senedd Cymru and the Scottish Parliament (Holyrood). Housing is a devolved policy area in both countries, so these elections have direct implications for housing policy, regulation, funding and public debate.
Housing is a major campaign issue in both nations, and housing providers should expect heightened scrutiny during the pre-election period and beyond once the winning parties implement their manifesto pledges.
Wales: Senedd election 2026
Political context and party standing
The 2026 Senedd election is taking place following significant changes to the Welsh electoral system and the expansion of the Senedd, contributing to a more competitive and less predictable political environment.
Recent opinion polls predict Welsh Labour will suffer significant losses, falling to around 10-13% of the vote, with Plaid Cymru (33-37%) and Reform UK (23-30%) battling for first place and right to form the next Welsh Government. The Green Party could play a key role in coalition negotiations with predicted 12-14% of the vote.
- Welsh Labour enters the election as the dominant party of government having formed the Welsh Government since devolution in 1999, but the party is under increasing pressure.
- Plaid Cymru remains a major force, particularly in west and north Wales, and continues to position housing and community sustainability as core national issues.
- Greens, Reform UK and independents are expected to play a larger role under proportional representation, increasing the likelihood of coalition negotiations.
- The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have both seen support weaken since 2021 and face an uphill struggle to expand their Senedd influence.
Polling and sector research consistently show that housing is one of the top issues for Welsh voters, alongside health and cost-of-living concerns. Housing and homelessness have been repeatedly described by housing sector bodies as a national emergency, which has pushed the issue firmly into the election foreground.
What this means for housing providers operating in Wales
- Housing associations are high-profile stakeholders in Wales and are frequently cited in national policy debate.
- There is a strong expectation – across parties – that housing providers will contribute to solutions on:
- Social and affordable supply
- Temporary accommodation and homelessness
- Quality, decarbonisation and tenant rights
- Campaign narratives often frame housing associations as part of the delivery infrastructure of government, increasing the risk of perceived political alignment if communications are not carefully handled.
Communications implications
- Welsh housing associations (and England-based associations with Welsh homes) should exercise particular caution commenting on:
- Legislative reform
- Long-term funding settlements
- Rights-based approaches to housing
- Pre-election communications should focus on service continuity, tenant wellbeing and delivery facts, not policy positioning.
Requests from Senedd candidates for statements, visits or endorsements should be handled through a consistent, written approach, applied equally across parties.
Scotland: Scottish Parliament (Holyrood) election 2026
Political context and party standing
The Holyrood election takes place against a backdrop of a formally declared housing emergency in Scotland and significant public dissatisfaction with housing outcomes.
Recent opinion polls show the SNP predicted to win 67 seats – enough for a majority and so ending the minority administration it has led since a power-sharing deal with the Greens collapsed in 2024. Reform UK is set for 20 seats, with Scottish Labour falling to 15 seats.
- The Scottish National Party (SNP) remains the largest party and is seeking a further term in government to add to its 20 years in power – it may even win a majority.
- Reform UK and independents are gaining visibility, further fragmenting the vote.
- Scottish Labour has seen its challenge falter in the past 18 months as it has slipped from leading the polls and winning the most Scottish seats in the UK General Election in July 2024.
- The Scottish Greens are influential on housing, planning and rent policy and may again hold balance-of-power influence.
- Scottish Conservatives are under sustained pressure and risk further losses.
Polling shows that housing is one of the Scottish Government’s weakest-rated policy areas, making it a central feature of campaign debate and media scrutiny.
What this means for housing providers operating in Scotland
- Housing associations are deeply embedded in Scotland’s housing system and are frequently referenced in:
- Debate on rent controls
- Affordable housing supply
- Homelessness prevention
- Stock condition and standards
- Policy proposals under discussion – including rent regulation, homelessness duties and planning reform – are often highly contested and politically charged.
- Housing associations risk being drawn into adversarial debate, particularly where individual tenant cases become symbolic of wider system failure.
Communications implications
- Scottish housing associations should assume very low tolerance for perceived neutrality breaches during the campaign.
- Avoid commentary that could be interpreted as:
- Supporting or opposing rent control models
- Favouring specific government approaches
- Criticising existing legislation or enforcement
Focus messaging on operational delivery, compliance, tenant safety and support, and avoid forward-looking policy speculation until after polling day.
Cross-border considerations for housing associations
For organisations operating in England and Wales, or England and Scotland, the concurrent elections raise additional risks:
- Different political narratives unfolding simultaneously
- Media comparisons between devolved and reserved policy approaches
- Risk of a statement made in one nation being re-framed politically in another
Best practice
- Avoid UK-wide political statements during the election period.
- Tailor messaging clearly by nation, with explicit geographic framing.
- Ensure spokespeople are briefed on devolved competence boundaries.
Key takeaways for Wales and Scotland
In both devolved nations, housing is:
- Highly politicised
- Central to voter concern
- Closely associated with government performance
Housing associations should plan for increased political sensitivity, tighter media framing and higher expectations of neutrality than during routine political cycles.